Methodology
How scoring works
Indicator scores
Each indicator is scored on a 0–3 scale against thresholds that admins can edit:
- 0 · Normal
- 1 · Watch
- 2 · Stress
- 3 · Critical
Company totals
Indicator scores sum to a company total, which maps to a band:
- 0–4 Stable
- 5–9 Watch
- 10–15 Stress
- 16+ Critical
Ecosystem score
Each company's total is normalized to 0–100 (where 100 = every applicable indicator critical), then weighted-averaged across the cohort. Weights are configurable per company. The aggregate score is binned into the same four bands at 25 / 50 / 75 thresholds.
Indicator catalog
Insider activity
Form 4 filings indicating concentrated insider selling.
- Insider net sales (90 days)
- Distinct insider sellers (30 days)
Filing changes
SEC filings flagging material events, auditor turnover, or going-concern language.
- 8-K material events (30 days)
- Going-concern language present
- Auditor change (180 days)
Credit and liquidity
Bond spreads, cash runway, revolver disclosures.
- Bond spread (bps)
- Cash burn runway (quarters)
- Revolver drawdown
Market sentiment
Drawdown, volume anomalies, implied volatility proxies.
- Drawdown from 52-week high
- Volume z-score (30 days)
- IV proxy
News and narrative
Negative-keyword frequency in news and transcripts; analyst downgrades.
- Negative news (14 days)
- Transcript negative keywords
- Analyst downgrades (30 days)
Relationship structure
Graph properties of cohort relationships — circularity and concentration.
- Circular exposure count
- Top-1 customer revenue concentration
Limits and assumptions
- Private companies have fewer applicable indicators than public ones; their normalized score uses only what is observable.
- Manual events take precedence over ingestion-derived values for the same indicator.
- Thresholds are starting defaults — the admin panel adjusts them as the cohort evolves.
- Alerts indicate possible stress, not confirmed outcomes. Always verify the underlying source.